Astronomers are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which has been identified as the most probable sizable celestial object poised to collide with Earth. Originally detected in December, this asteroid measures between 130 to 300 feet in length and is expected to make a near pass to our planet in December 2032. The likelihood of it striking Earth on December 22, 2032, is currently estimated at 3.1%, surpassing earlier fears associated with larger asteroid Apophis.
The Apophis asteroid was discovered in 2004, and its initial impact odds were calculated at 2.7% for 2029, which have since been reduced to zero. Although 2024 YR4 is smaller, it still holds the potential for catastrophic consequences, especially depending on its entry point into Earth’s atmosphere.
A collision would not necessarily eliminate a country, but it could inflict significant damage on urban centers. While much of the asteroid's predicted path crosses uninhabited ocean, close proximity to sprawling cities such as Bogotá, Lagos, and Mumbai raises concerns about the possible outcome of an impact.
The destructive potential of an asteroid largely hinges on its kinetic energy, which is related to its mass. Given the limited observations available for 2024 YR4, scientists can only provide a range of estimates concerning its mass and density, leading to uncertainty around the eventual energy it could unleash. Mark Boslough, a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, highlights this uncertainty, stating, “We don’t know how dense or porous it is, so its mass, and therefore the energy it would release if it strikes Earth’s surface or explodes in the atmosphere, is uncertain.”
As researchers await more reliable data, the looming presence of asteroid 2024 YR4 acts as a reminder of the ongoing need for vigilance in monitoring the skies above us.
