In brief
Nearly three years into the sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, their effectiveness remains debated. With the election of Donald Trump, who intends to use sanctions minimally, experts question whether these economic measures have the power to alter Moscow's aggressive stance.
In January 2025, as President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to take office, the international focus shifts back to the sanctions placed on Russia since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Over 1,000 days have passed and the sanctions, targeting Russian banks, businesses, and individuals, have sparked a renewed discussion about their impact. Trump has expressed a desire to utilize sanctions "as little as possible," indicating a change in U.S. policy towards the conflict, asserting his confidence in resolving the war swiftly. Experts argue that the sanctions were initially viewed as a quick solution to shift power in Russia, but this expectation may have been overly optimistic. Economic forecasts predicting the crumbling of President Vladimir V. Putin's regime haven't materialized. Instead, Putin remains resilient in his position, with Russian forces continuing to make gains against Ukraine. Sergei Guriev, a noted Russian economist and current dean at the London Business School, emphasizes that the expectations of sanctions leading to a rapid resolution were rooted more in hope than in realistic possibilities. As Trump approaches negotiations, the effectiveness of sanctions and military aid as leverage remains a contentious topic among analysts and policymakers, highlighting the complex chess match that defines the current geopolitical landscape.
