When Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan's prime minister, clasped Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh last week, the symbolism was unmistakable.
The embrace followed the signing of a strategic mutual defence agreement, bringing the Islamic world's only nuclear-armed state closer to the Gulf's most ambitious monarchy.
A senior Saudi official stated that the pact was merely an institutionalisation of long-standing and deep cooperation. However, many in India see it differently.
Despite Delhi's cultivated warmth with Riyadh, the pact lands amid heightened hostility with Pakistan, exacerbated by a four-day conflict earlier this year. Nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan have a history of clashes over Kashmir, making any move by Saudi to underwrite Pakistan's military a direct concern.
What unsettles Indian analysts the most is the pact's commitment that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both. Brahma Chellaney, an Indian strategist, pointed out on social media that Riyadh knew India would perceive the Saudi-Pakistan pact as a direct threat to its security but proceeded nonetheless.
Former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal described the pact as a grave misstep by Saudi Arabia, warning that this could have serious implications for India's national security. He characterized a politically unstable and economically fragile Pakistan as a risky security provider.
India's current government has adopted a more cautious approach, with a foreign ministry spokesman stating that they would analyze the pact's implications for national security and regional stability, emphasizing that strategic partnerships should recognize mutual interests and sensitivities.
Analysts seem divided on the significance of this pact. Some argue that India may be overstating the risks, suggesting that Saudi Arabia values balanced ties with India, its second-largest trading partner. However, the embedded nature of the agreement may strengthen Pakistan's position within a broader coalition of support against India.
Others see it less as an immediate threat and more as a shift in regional alignments that could complicate India’s geopolitical landscape. These developments could redefine security paradigms in the Middle East and South Asia, with analysts warning that this could replicate a Cold War-like dynamic whereby Saudi Arabia asserts military influence akin to the US’s role in the past.
As geopolitical tensions evolve, the focus shifts to how alliances will reshape the security architecture in the region, with India keeping a watchful eye on future developments.
