Nepal has become the third country in India's immediate neighbourhood to see a violent uprising topple its government in recent years. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after more than 20 people died in clashes with police during anti-government demonstrations triggered by a social media ban.
A nationwide curfew is in place, and the army is attempting to bring the situation under control after protesters stormed parliament and set fire to the homes of several politicians.
The scenes in Kathmandu are reminiscent of previous turmoil in Bangladesh last year and Sri Lanka in 2022. Nepal shares a largely open border of more than 1,750 km with several Indian states, making the situation particularly concerning for India.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swiftly reacted to the unfolding events, expressing anguish over the violence and calling for peace. Modi emphasized the importance of stability and prosperity in Nepal during an emergency cabinet meeting.
Indian analysts suggest that India was caught off-guard by these developments, particularly as Oli's resignation came just before a planned visit to New Delhi. Nepal's strategic location, bordered by China to the north, exacerbates this tension.
The unrest also impacts the large Nepali diaspora in India, estimated at 3.5 million, with familial ties playing an integral role in the close relationship between the two countries. In addition, important Hindu holy sites in Nepal attract many Indian pilgrims, reinforcing cultural and economic ties.
As calm begins to return to Kathmandu, experts warn that India must delicately navigate this evolving political landscape, ensuring engagement with all political parties and the youth of Nepal. The broader geopolitical implications and historical grievances will require careful management to maintain stability in the region.
