The waters of the north Pacific have had their warmest summer on record, according to BBC analysis of a mysterious marine heatwave that has confounded climate scientists.
Sea surface temperatures between July and September were more than 0.25C above the previous high of 2022 - a significant increase across an area roughly ten times the size of the Mediterranean.
While climate change is known to make marine heatwaves more likely, scientists are struggling to explain why the north Pacific has been so hot for so long.
But all this extra heat in the so-called warm blob may have the opposite effect in the UK, possibly making a colder start to winter more likely, some researchers believe.
Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist from Berkeley Earth, stated, There's definitely something unusual going on in the north Pacific. He noted that such a jump in temperatures across a region this large is quite remarkable.
Analysis from the European Copernicus climate service calculated average temperatures between July and September across this significant area of the north Pacific. The findings indicate that the region is not only warming rapidly but that 2025 marks a significant peak compared to recent years.
Scientists attribute the increasing temperatures to global warming caused by human emissions, which have already tripled the number of days of extreme heat in oceans. Nonetheless, current temperatures have surpassed most climate models' predictions.
This summer, weaker-than-usual winds contributed to retaining more heat in the sea surface. However, an element of natural weather variability cannot alone account for the observed conditions, according to Dr. Hausfather.
Another potential factor in the warming trend is a change in shipping fuels post-2020, which has led to a decrease in sulphur dioxide emissions. This reduction has potentially allowed for an increase in ocean temperatures, as sulphur previously contributed to reflective particles that cooled the atmosphere.
The marine heatwave has already impacted weather on both sides of the Pacific, likely amplifying high summer temperatures in Japan and South Korea while contributing to storms in the US. Experts warn that long-term forecasting is complex, but the current conditions could also influence weather in the UK, potentially bringing colder winter temperatures and fluctuating impacts as the season progresses.