Understanding the Implications of the Leaked US-Russia Peace Plan for Ukraine

Sat Nov 22 2025 16:10:35 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

The recently leaked draft of a US-Russia peace plan for Ukraine has sparked debates around territorial concessions and military limitations that could redefine Ukraine's future and its position in international alliances.

The leaked US draft peace plan proposes significant changes for Ukraine, including the ceding of territory to Russia and reducing its military to 600,000 personnel. While some elements of the draft may appeal to Ukraine, major concerns remain regarding sovereignty, security guarantees, and potential implications for international alliances. As pressure mounts for a swift decision, the plan could reshape Ukraine's geopolitical landscape amidst ongoing conflict.

The draft US-Russia peace plan has been widely leaked and we now know that it proposes to hand over those areas of Ukraine's industrial eastern Donbas region still under Ukrainian control to the de facto control of Vladimir Putin's Russia.

Latest versions of the text also call for Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces to 600,000 people.

But what else is known about the text and who stands to benefit from it most?

What are the key points?

There are 28 key points and there are several that could be acceptable to Ukraine, although others come across as vague.

Ukraine's sovereignty would be confirmed, and there would be a total and complete comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, with robust security guarantees for Kyiv and a demand for snap elections in 100 days.

If Russia were to invade Ukraine, a robust coordinated military response is proposed, along with a restoration of sanctions and a scrapping of the deal.

Although elections are impossible while martial law is in place, they could theoretically be held if a peace deal is signed. However, details on security guarantees are lacking, which may fall short of Ukrainian expectations.

Handover of Ukraine's Territory and Limitations on Armed Forces

Most contentiously, the draft suggests Ukraine should hand over unoccupied territory and cut its armed forces. The withdrawal zone proposed would be recognized as belonging to Russia, which is unlikely to be acceptable to many Ukrainians, especially concerning areas with significant populations.

The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be limited to 600,000, raising concerns over Ukraine's sovereignty and military independence.

Ukraine's Future - with EU but not NATO

The draft also proposes that Ukraine enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO while remaining eligible for EU membership. This reflection of a strategic future is contentious given Ukraine's constitutional commitments and its desire for broader alliances.

Bringing Russia Back from Isolation

The plan includes suggestions for re-integrating Russia into the global economy, which could be met with resistance from nations wary of Russia's past actions.

Addressing Frozen Assets

It proposes investing $100 billion of frozen Russian assets into US-led efforts to rebuild Ukraine, with US profits coming from this initiative, raising concerns about EU's financial responsibilities.

Notably Absent From the Plan

Several key elements are missing from the plan, such as any restrictions on Ukraine's military advancements. The implications of such omissions warrant careful consideration.

Is This a Definitive Peace Plan?

This draft represents a snapshot of potential resolutions, not a finalized plan, as expressed by various foreign officials. Its evolving nature indicates ongoing negotiations and adjustments.