In brief
With the likelihood of surpassing the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, experts emphasize an immediate need for decisive climate action ahead of the upcoming COP29 conference.
Climate projections are sounding alarm bells as 2024 is poised to become the hottest year recorded, with severe heatwaves and devastating storms marking its course. Data from the European climate service confirms that global average temperatures could exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in history, highlighting human-induced climate change as the primary driver of this alarming trend.Experts suggest that this unprecedented situation should compel global leaders to act decisively at the forthcoming UN climate conference, COP29, in Azerbaijan. Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, has underscored the urgency by asserting, “This latest record sends another stark warning to governments at COP29 about the urgent need for action to limit any further warming.”The first ten months of 2024 have seen temperatures remain consistently elevated, and only a dramatic decrease in temperature during the last two months could prevent the establishment of this new record. Projections from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service estimate an increase of at least 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, breaking last year’s previous record of 1.48°C.Despite the potential for fluctuation in longer-term averages, scientists emphasize the significance of this single-year record. While the Paris climate agreement, signed by nearly 200 nations, aims to limit warming to an average of 1.5°C over two decades, breaches of this threshold underscore the urgency of climate change implications.Additionally, the warmth experienced earlier in the year was compounded by the El Niño phenomenon, which saw warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific feeding additional heat into the atmosphere. Although El Niño conditions may shift to the cooler La Niña phase, which could provide temporary relief, uncertainty remains around resulting temperature changes.The increased heat is producing more frequent intense storms, extreme heatwaves, and severe rainfall, provoking far-reaching consequences for communities globally. Professor Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading remarked, “Stabilising global temperatures by reaching net zero emissions is the only way to stop adding to the costs of these disasters,” reinforcing the critical need for immediate and sustained climate action to avoid catastrophic outcomes.
