Britain and France's recognition of a state of Palestine at the United Nations is a historic moment in the century-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But it is also a diplomatic gamble illustrating how major European powers believe the conflict has reached the point where it requires them to take such an unprecedented move.

Faced with the current catastrophe in Gaza, and meting out condemnation for both Israel and Hamas, French President Emmanuel Macron said 'right must prevail over might'. His move, coordinated with the UK and under Saudi sponsorship, is meant to keep the two-state solution on life support. They believe this long-held international formula for peace is the only path to a fair, shared future for the two societies.

The alternative, UN Secretary General António Guterres told a UN conference in New York, was a 'one-state' solution, meaning Israeli domination and the 'subjugation' of Palestinians. Nothing, he said, could justify their collective punishment, starvation or any form of ethnic cleansing.

Israel is furious and is threatening to respond. It sees the UN conference, along with recognition of a Palestinian state by the UK, France, Canada, Australia and others, as a reward for Hamas after its attack on Israel and its hostage-taking on 7 October 2023. Some Israeli ministers want the response to be an announcement of annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank, forever ruling out a viable Palestinian state on the territory.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition, including far-right figures whose avowed policy is to expel Palestinians and build Jewish settlements in their place, is intent on pulling the plug on a two-state solution. The Trump administration continues to back its Israeli ally, rejecting the Europeans' move, punishing Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas, completely sidelining him from the discussion.

The recognition of a Palestinian state by European nations signifies a stark departure from the diplomatic norm favoring US-led initiatives. Macron's strategy aims for a viable resolution to the ongoing violence in Gaza and to provide a path toward peaceful co-existence.

However, without US involvement, there's concern that the pressure needed to effect change across the region may be lacking, as the Trump administration unequivocally rejects this approach. In light of these developments, Palestinians are left hopeful yet aware that meaningful progress towards statehood hinges on America's ultimate stance.