The question hanging over Tehran since the opening strikes of Iran's current war with the US and Israel is simple: Who is in charge?
Formally, the answer is clear. Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed the role of supreme leader following the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, on the first day of the war on 28 February. In the Islamic Republic's system, that position is meant to be decisive. The leader has the final word on almost anything important: war, peace, and the state's strategic direction.
But in practice, the picture is far murkier.
Donald Trump has described Iran's leadership as fractured and suggested the US is waiting for Tehran to produce a unified proposal. Unity was certainly on the minds of Iran's leaders when they distributed a message to Iranians on their mobile phones on Thursday night saying there was no such thing as a hardliner or moderate in Iran - there was just one nation, one course.
Invisible leader
Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since taking power. Beyond a handful of written statements, including one insisting the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, there is little direct evidence of his day-to-day control.
Iranian officials have acknowledged that he was injured in the initial strikes but have offered few details. The New York Times, citing Iranian sources, reported this week that he may have suffered several injuries, including to his face that have made it difficult for him to speak.
That absence matters. In Iran's political system, authority is not just institutional - it is also performative. Khamenei's late father signalled intent through speeches, calibrated appearances, and visible arbitration between factions. That signalling function is now largely missing.
The result is a vacuum of interpretation. Some argue that Mojtaba Khamenei's wartime elevation has simply not allowed him to establish authority on his own terms. Others point to reports about his injuries and question whether he is able to actively manage the system at all.
Either way, decision-making appears less centralised than before the war.
Diplomatic channels open but only just
On paper, diplomacy sits with the government. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi continues to represent Tehran in talks with the US, under Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. But neither appears to be setting strategy and their authority is further put into question by the fact that Iran's delegation is headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf.
With control over key strategic decisions shifting towards the military, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), led by Ahmad Vahidi, many political figures are forced to navigate a landscape dominated by the military's operations.
Amidst this turbulence, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as a prominent figure, often seen promoting a pragmatic approach to negotiations, despite facing resistance from hardline factions.
This complex political maneuvering highlights not just the fragility of Khamenei's hold on power but the broader implications for Iran's ability to act coherently amidst pressing external threats.
