Democrats already had a lot to worry about in the 2026 California governor's race, an election they would typically expect to win easily: Too many candidates. Low name recognition. Voter apathy.
Then on Sunday, their leading candidate, Representative Eric Swalwell, faced with allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, dropped out of the contest, even as he denied the accusations. His exit threw the Democrats into further chaos and left the party facing a previously unthinkable possibility: could Republicans shut them entirely out of the general election in one of the bluest states in the US?
This would be an unforced error of historic proportions if Democrats fail to coordinate so badly that a Republican wins in a state where Donald Trump's approval rating is a little less than 30%, said Eric Schickler, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
The San Francisco Chronicle and CNN last week published allegations by several women about Swalwell's conduct, leading his most prominent backers to abandon him. On Monday, Swalwell announced he would resign from Congress, hours after the US House of Representatives Ethics Committee opened an investigation. Swalwell has apologized for the mistakes in judgment I've made in my past but vowed to fight the serious, false allegations that have been made.
The Democratic field was already muddled, even before Swalwell's exit. Sitting Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom cannot run again due to term limit rules, and other politicians with statewide name recognition – such as former Vice-President Kamala Harris – declined to enter the race.
Eight serious but lesser-known candidates have struggled to gain traction in California's enormous and expensive media market.
In March, an opinion poll by University of California Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies suggested that two Republican candidates were garnering the most support among voters as the packed field of Democrats had splintered their base. Thanks to California's primary system - which allows the top two vote-winners to compete in the general election regardless of party - such a result in June could mean there aren't any Democrats on the gubernatorial ballot in November, in a state that hasn't had a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.
The outcome of the race could have implications for Democrats beyond California's borders, as the state is the fifth-largest economy in the world, and its policies often inspire regulations nationwide.
With Swalwell gone, it's uncertain which candidate could absorb his momentum. This is the most unsettled race for California governor I've ever seen, said Garry South, a long-time Democratic strategist. The Democratic field was already pretty muddled, even after Swalwell took a small lead. Now, it's just an outright morass.
The two candidates best positioned to capture Swalwell's voters, are former Congresswoman Katie Porter and billionaire climate advocate Tom Steyer. However, Porter has faced reports of allegedly mistreating staff and Steyer has spent $89 million on advertisements, without seeing a corresponding surge in opinion polls.
All the Democratic candidates are struggling to distinguish themselves as the primary approaches amidst voter indecision and low enthusiasm. Political experts are left contemplating whether a split in the Democratic base could enable a surprising Republican victory in November.
