Nepal has become the third country in India's immediate neighbourhood to see a violent uprising topple its government in recent years. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after more than 20 people died in clashes with police during anti-government demonstrations triggered by a social media ban. A nationwide curfew is in place and the army is attempting to bring the situation under control after protesters stormed parliament and set fire to the homes of several politicians. For many, the scenes in Kathmandu were reminiscent of the turmoil that gripped Bangladesh last year and Sri Lanka in 2022.

Though Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also India's close neighbours in South Asia, Delhi's relationship with Kathmandu is special due to historic people-to-people, economic, and strategic ties. Nepal shares a largely open border of over 1,750km (466 miles) with five Indian states: Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar, and West Bengal.

Delhi is keenly watching developments across the border, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swiftly reacting to the unfolding events. He remarked, The violence in Nepal is heart-rending. I am anguished that many young people have lost their lives, appealing for peace amid the unrest. Modi also chaired an emergency security meeting to further discuss the situation.

The protests are raising alarms in India, especially as similar unrest has unseated governments in neighbouring nations. Analysts liken the upheaval in Nepal to that in Sri Lanka, which catalyzed drastic political shifts.

Given Nepal's strategic location bordering Tibet, the Western Theatre Command of China poses further complications, intensifying the stakes for India. The crisis has implications beyond immediate security; it affects the estimated 3.5 million Nepalis residing in India, who share strong familial ties across the open border. The relationship is further intertwined with Nepal’s dependence on Indian goods and services, highlighted by annual bilateral trade valued at approximately $8.5 billion.

As calm returns to parts of Nepal, challenges remain for India to manage its diplomatic relations with a potential new government while working to address the rising discontent among the Nepalese populace. Experts suggest India must invest in providing opportunities for youth in Nepal to stabilize these crucial relations. With other regional tensions also flaring, the stability of South Asia hangs in balance as India navigates Nepal's political landscape.