Over the past 10 months, Russian losses in the war with Ukraine have been growing faster than any time since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, BBC analysis suggests.
As peace efforts intensified in 2025 under pressure from US President Donald Trump's administration, 40% more obituaries of soldiers were published in Russian sources compared with the previous year.
Overall, the BBC has confirmed the names of almost 160,000 people killed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine.
BBC News Russian has been counting Russian war losses together with independent outlet Mediazona and a group of volunteers since February 2022. We keep a list of named individuals whose deaths we were able to confirm using official reports, newspapers, social media, and new memorials and graves.
The real death toll is believed to be much higher, and military experts we have consulted believe our analysis of cemeteries, war memorials, and obituaries might represent 45-65% of the total.
That would put the number of Russian deaths at between 243,000 and 352,000.
The number of obituaries for any given period is a preliminary estimate of the confirmed losses, as some need additional verification and will eventually be discarded. But it can indicate how the intensity of fighting is changing over time.
2025 starts with a relatively low number of published obituaries in January compared with the previous months. Then the number rises in February, when Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked directly for the first time about ending the war in Ukraine.
The next peak in August coincides with the two presidents meeting in Alaska, a diplomatic coup for Putin that was widely seen as an end to his international isolation.
In October, when a planned second Russia-US summit was shelved and then in November, when the US presented a 28-point peace proposal, an average of 322 obituaries were published per day - twice the average in 2024.
It is difficult to attribute increased Russian losses to any single factor, but the Kremlin views territorial gains as a means of influencing negotiations with the US in its favor. Putin aide Yuri Ushakov stressed recently that recent successes had positively impacted this perspective.
Murat Mukashev was among those who gambled on a quick peace deal, which ultimately cost him his life.
Mukashev was an activist who had never supported Putin's policies. Over the years, he participated in demonstrations against police violence and torture, and joined rallies for LGBT rights and the release of Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin's main opponent who died in prison in 2024.
He openly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine on social media since 2022. However, in early 2024, he was detained near his home in Moscow, facing charges of large-scale drug dealing.
While his case was being tried, he was offered a contract with the defence ministry, a move viewed by his friends and family as a common tactic to secure recruits from those facing severe legal consequences.
Mukashev refused the offer, resulting in a 10-year sentence in a high-security penal colony.
In prison in November 2024, he changed his mind and decided to sign up, motivated by promises from the Trump administration for a swift conclusion to the war and a chance at early release.
On June 11, 2025, Mukashev died fighting in the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine—a stark reminder that many of those now fighting had no prior military affiliation.
As of 2025, the landscape of Russian military engagement has shifted significantly; a year ago, only 15% of military deaths were among volunteers, whereas now they represent one-third of casualties.
Local governments, driven to recruit constantly, offer lucrative pay-offs and engage college students in recruitment drives, promoting enlistment as a solution to debt and economic hardship.
By October, reports indicated that 336,000 individuals had enlisted in the military that year—an indication that recruitment remains steady despite significant front-line losses. NATO estimates suggest that Russia experiences about 25,000 military fatalities monthly, which continues to reflect in a substantial recruit influx.
Despite these figures, both Russian and Ukrainian forces face high casualty rates, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stating in February that Ukrainian battlefield deaths ranged around 46,000, growing as mutual combat losses surge amidst a stalemated conflict.
