Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements.

The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements.

It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.

Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public.

Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions. Here are five of the most significant examples.

9 March 2026: 'The war is very complete, pretty much'

Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market.

Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was 'very complete, pretty much'.

Market watchers highlighted that in the hours leading up to his announcement, there was a notable spike in oil futures trading.

23 March 2026: 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'

On 23 March, just two days after threatening to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants, Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington had held 'VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS' with Tehran over a 'COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION' to hostilities.

This announcement triggered major trading activity in oil markets, with many traders profiting from the subsequent price drops.

9 April 2025: 'Liberation Day' pause

Away from the war in the Middle East, on 2 April last year, Trump announced what he called Liberation Day - a sweeping set of tariffs on goods from practically every country in the world. Stock markets around the globe plunged.

However, a week later, when Trump announced a 90-day 'pause' on the levies for all countries, except China, stock markets soared. Traders again showed unusual trading patterns in the lead-up to these announcements.

3 Jan 2026: Maduro seized

In January 2026, a user profited significantly from betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be ousted following US intervention, raising questions about the accessibility of privileged information during such pivotal moments.

28 Feb 2026: Strikes on Iran

In February 2026, as tensions rose in the Middle East, several accounts were found to have won significant amounts by betting correctly on US military strikes in Iran, further fueling concerns over insider trading.

Despite the apparent evidence, proving insider trading remains a challenge for enforcers, as they need to trace the source of information and establish clear connections to wrongdoing. The White House has not commented on the trading activities analyzed in this report.