In brief
Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) has begun building models that forecast forest fires up to six months ahead, following a directive from President Prabowo Subianto. The initiative will use satellite imagery and partner with universities to study fire spread, providing authorities more time to prepare. BRIN also monitors hotspots daily and shares data with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency and the Forestry Ministry to strengthen fire prevention and response efforts.
Jakarta – In a push to better protect its vast forest landscapes, Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) is developing models that could forecast forest and land fires up to six months in advance, a move ordered by President Prabowo Subianto and announced by BRIN chief Arif Satria at the presidential palace on Tuesday, October 28, 2026.
During the limited meeting, Arif highlighted that BRIN had been tasked by the president to strengthen medium‑and‑long‑term fire management. He said the agency’s research is already underway and that it is “now validating the model to forecast fire conditions three and six months in advance.”
BRIN’s new models will rely heavily on satellite‑based data. The agency has long used satellite imagery for various purposes, including detecting fire hotspots. Arif reminded that BRIN is mandated to use this technology for multiple roles, “including detecting fire hotspots,” and that the data is shared in real time with national disaster‑management bodies.
Beyond prediction, the research team is studying how fires spread in areas that have been affected by repeated forest and land fires. These studies aim to map spread patterns so that authorities can anticipate fire movement and develop more effective preventive measures.
According to Arif, the early‑warning capability is “crucial to strengthening prevention and response efforts, rather than waiting until fires have already broken out.” By providing a lead time of several months, communities and agencies could conduct targeted fire‑breaks, schedule controlled burns, and mobilize resources well before conditions become critical.
Bringing academic expertise into the mix, BRIN plans to partner with universities on both fire‑forecasting and fire‑spread research. The collaboration will harness local knowledge, refine model accuracy, and ensure that the developed tools are adaptable to Indonesia’s diverse ecological zones.
Daily hotspot monitoring is already a core function of BRIN. The agency collects data from satellite imagery and feeds it to the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) and the Forestry Ministry. This real‑time information helps frontline responders identify emerging threats and allocate suppression teams more efficiently.
“We use the satellite imagery available at BRIN for various purposes, including detecting fire hotspots,” the chief emphasized, underscoring the agency’s dual role in both science and operational support.
By integrating predictive modeling with daily monitoring, BRIN hopes to transform Indonesia’s approach to forest fire management. The anticipated six‑month lead time could allow for strategic planning of land use, reforestation efforts, and community education programs—particularly in regions where fires frequently threaten livelihoods and local ecosystems.
Key stakeholders such as BNPB and the Forestry Ministry have expressed support for the initiative, noting that a robust forecasting system would complement existing fire‑suppression tactics and improve inter‑agency coordination.
While the agency is still validating the models, preliminary results suggest that satellite‑derived data, combined with terrestrial observations, can accurately pinpoint conditions favorable for fire ignition and spread across varied topographies.
As Indonesia continues to grapple with seasonal fire cycles, this forward‑looking research represents a significant step toward mitigating environmental damage and protecting vulnerable communities that depend on forest resources.
