Across the world on Wednesday night, millions of people will tune in to watch Donald Trump deliver a primetime update on the war in Iran. Many will hope for some insight on how the war ends and what might come after.
The Trump administration has signalled there may be no big announcement, but many are wondering if his hastily-arranged remarks will mark the beginning of the end of the conflict or a potentially bloody escalation.
This ambiguity is, at least partly, by design. Trump often changes course or leaves his thinking a mystery to all but a small inner circle of supporters, which he has acknowledged leaves friend and foe alike wondering about his next move.
The president also knows that the address comes at a critical time in his presidency and amid mounting domestic pressure to find a way out of the conflict. Poll after poll has shown that Americans have little appetite for a protracted conflict in Iran, particularly if it involves the prospect of US soldiers on Iranian soil.
A Reuters poll released this week found that two-thirds of Americans believe the US should work to swiftly wrap up its involvement in the war, even if the administration's stated military objectives are not fully accomplished.
Closer to home, many Americans are increasingly wary of higher prices at the petrol pump, which this week crossed the average of $4 a gallon for the first time in years. For a president who often pointed to lower petrol prices as a mark of success, this trend represents a challenge.
Imran Bayoumi, a geostrategy expert with the Atlantic Council in Washington DC, stated that the deep domestic unpopularity of the war and the economic fallout pose significant problems ahead of the midterm elections.
The US president will likely present his view on how the conflict will come to a close. This has shifted repeatedly, from initial calls for an unconditional Iranian surrender to a potential negotiated agreement. Just yesterday, he abruptly shifted course, saying that the war could end in two to three weeks even without any deal.
This morning, he again seemed to shift, posting on Truth Social that Iran's “much less radicalised” president had asked the US for a ceasefire, but that the US would not consider it until the Strait of Hormuz is open.
Until then, Trump promised, the US will be “blasting Iran into oblivion, or as they say, back to the Stone Ages.”
According to a White House official, the speech will mostly focus on military successes of the operation, such as degrading Iran's navy, missile capabilities, and nuclear programme. Trump is expected to reiterate that he believes the operation will be over in two or three weeks.
It is unclear, however, what any US exit from the conflict will look like. What constitutes victory for Trump is loosely defined, which provides him with some flexibility. Trump has mentioned that he's halted the nuclear threat from Iran, but it's not clear he actually has.
While tactically the US-Israeli operation has successfully hurt Iran’s military, Trump’s assertion that the war is winding down leaves a narrow window for more complex military options, such as seizing control of Iran's highly-enriched uranium or opening the Strait.
What he says tonight will be carefully scrutinised by US allies and adversaries, some of whom will wonder whether it constitutes a ruse.
The Trump administration has signalled there may be no big announcement, but many are wondering if his hastily-arranged remarks will mark the beginning of the end of the conflict or a potentially bloody escalation.
This ambiguity is, at least partly, by design. Trump often changes course or leaves his thinking a mystery to all but a small inner circle of supporters, which he has acknowledged leaves friend and foe alike wondering about his next move.
The president also knows that the address comes at a critical time in his presidency and amid mounting domestic pressure to find a way out of the conflict. Poll after poll has shown that Americans have little appetite for a protracted conflict in Iran, particularly if it involves the prospect of US soldiers on Iranian soil.
A Reuters poll released this week found that two-thirds of Americans believe the US should work to swiftly wrap up its involvement in the war, even if the administration's stated military objectives are not fully accomplished.
Closer to home, many Americans are increasingly wary of higher prices at the petrol pump, which this week crossed the average of $4 a gallon for the first time in years. For a president who often pointed to lower petrol prices as a mark of success, this trend represents a challenge.
Imran Bayoumi, a geostrategy expert with the Atlantic Council in Washington DC, stated that the deep domestic unpopularity of the war and the economic fallout pose significant problems ahead of the midterm elections.
The US president will likely present his view on how the conflict will come to a close. This has shifted repeatedly, from initial calls for an unconditional Iranian surrender to a potential negotiated agreement. Just yesterday, he abruptly shifted course, saying that the war could end in two to three weeks even without any deal.
This morning, he again seemed to shift, posting on Truth Social that Iran's “much less radicalised” president had asked the US for a ceasefire, but that the US would not consider it until the Strait of Hormuz is open.
Until then, Trump promised, the US will be “blasting Iran into oblivion, or as they say, back to the Stone Ages.”
According to a White House official, the speech will mostly focus on military successes of the operation, such as degrading Iran's navy, missile capabilities, and nuclear programme. Trump is expected to reiterate that he believes the operation will be over in two or three weeks.
It is unclear, however, what any US exit from the conflict will look like. What constitutes victory for Trump is loosely defined, which provides him with some flexibility. Trump has mentioned that he's halted the nuclear threat from Iran, but it's not clear he actually has.
While tactically the US-Israeli operation has successfully hurt Iran’s military, Trump’s assertion that the war is winding down leaves a narrow window for more complex military options, such as seizing control of Iran's highly-enriched uranium or opening the Strait.
What he says tonight will be carefully scrutinised by US allies and adversaries, some of whom will wonder whether it constitutes a ruse.
